Deloitte and Forrester are out with their retail predictions for the 2020 year-end holidays.
Deloitte has a “glass half full” view, expecting a rise in holiday retail sales between 1% to 1.5%. On the other hand, market research firm Forrester sees the glass half empty, with retail sales declining 2.5% for the full year.
Despite their differing forecasts, both firms are certain about one thing: This will be the year when online shopping explodes…
Forrester sees online retail growing 18.5% this year, so that it will reach 20.2% overall penetration in North America.
Online sales for retailers in popular gifting categories will get a boost for the holidays, with health and beauty up 23%, consumer electronics rising 20%, fashion up 19% and home furnishings growing 16% by year’s end.
On the flip side, in-store retail performance in these categories will tank – health and beauty offline sales down 8.2%, home furnishings off 15.2%, consumer electronics down 26.3% and in-store fashion sales off by 33.7%.
“As online buyer behaviour remains strong, we expect offline sales to decline by 6.6% in 2020,” Forrester reports.
The more bullish Deloitte predicts e-commerce holiday retail sales to grow between 25% to 35% from November through January, reaching $182 billion to $196 billion in total.
Adding ammunition to that explosive e-commerce forecast is a new survey conducted by Dynata for Redpoint Global, a software company providing omnichannel support to retailers.
That study found nearly two-thirds of the 1,000 adult shoppers surveyed (62%) planned to do ALL their holiday shopping online.
Such explosive growth bodes well for the eCommerce sector and will force bricks-and-mortar businesses to look cloudwards to survive.
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