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The pandemic has accelerated ecommerce growth in the US to the extent that online sales this year will reach a level not previously expected until 2022, according to eMarketer’s Q3 US retail forecast.
US ecommerce sales will reach $794.50 billion in 2020, up 32.4% year-over-year, compared to eMarketer’s original prediction of 18%, in its Q2 forecast. That’s a whopping 14.4% above expectations – and it’s all down to the Covid pandemic.
“We’ve seen ecommerce accelerate in ways that didn’t seem possible last spring, given the extent of the economic crisis,” says Andrew Lipsman, eMarketer principal analyst at Insider Intelligence. “While much of the shift has been led by essential categories like grocery, there has been surprising strength in discretionary categories like consumer electronics and home furnishings that benefited from pandemic-driven lifestyle needs.”
Online shopping will more than offset a 3.2% expected decline in brick-and-mortar spending, which will drop to $4.7 trillion. This means total retail sales in the US will remain essentially flat. It’s just that eCommerce has taken over the ball-game, probably irreversibly.
Ecommerce sales in the USA will reach 14.4% of all US retail spending this year and 19.2% by 2024. When excluding gas and auto sales (categories sold almost exclusively offline), ecommerce penetration jumps to 20.6%!
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